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There Can be Blood": Petrodollar Death Means A Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis On Deck -- Two years ago, in hushed tones at first, then ever louder, the financial world began discussing that which shall never be discussed in polite firm - the end of the system that in response to many has framed and facilitated the US Dollar's reserve foreign money standing: the Petrodollar, or the world wherein oil export countries would recycle the dollars they received in trade for his or her oil exports, by buying extra USD-denominated belongings, boosting the monetary energy of the reserve currency, resulting in even increased asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop. The principle thrust for this shift away from the USD, if primarily within the non-mainstream media, was that with Russia and China, as well as the remainder of the BRIC nations, more and more seeking to distance themselves from the US-led, "developed world" established order spearheaded by the IMF, global trade would more and more happen by way of bilateral arrangements which bypass the (Petro)greenback entirely. And positive enough, this has definitely been taking place, as first Russia and China, along with Iran, and ever extra creating nations, have transacted among each other, bypassing the USD fully, as an alternative participating in bilateral trade arrangements, leading to, amongst different factor, such discussions as, in today's FT, why China's Renminbi offshore market has gone from nothing to billions in a short house of time. Oil-price decline: the financial institution-exit liquidity concept - We’re all about unexpected penalties of "liquidity illusion-syndrome" as of late, so it was thrilling to find a liquidity-focused assertion from Citi’s Edward Morse and workforce on Monday in regards to the current oil value decline, one which ties collectively a couple of ideas about how commodity markets relate to financial institution intermediation. As a reminder, we have postulated that much of the decline is less related to sudden spot imbalances as it's to the curve’s "definancialisation". The connection Citi has now made is between the commodity sell-off and regulatory burdens placed on banks’ commodity operations. It provides to a dialogue developed in an April paper by David Bicchetti and Nicolas Maystre, which questioned whether the current correlation reversal in commodities was certainly related to the closure of banks’ commodity departments. Here’s Citi’s remark: A second idea of commodity futures argues that futures prices are derived from anticipated future spot costs plus or minus a risk premium. This view is partially predicated on a balance between hedgers, who are naturally lengthy the commodity (like producers), and those who are naturally short (like refiners or airlines or trucking firms). It additionally involves liquidity supplied by speculators or traders. This view of futures costs is harder to prove for statistical causes, and has subsequently been somewhat controversial in tutorial literature. In consequence, we argue lengthy-dated prices will often be extra anchored to expectations about future spot prices than to strict arbitrage relationships with the present spot value. Variations in risk premia and monetary flows, and foreign money results are unavoidable. The latest exit of some banks from the again of the curve has impacted liquidity and thus may have magnified the affect of monetary flows on costs during the last 12 months. The Worst Case If The Oil Slump Continues: "A Profit Recession" - With hopes excessive, at the least among corner workplaces of the majors, that this week's OPEC assembly will somehow handle to decelerate the largest plunge in crude prices since Lehman, it's going to take a lot more than mere discuss and hollow promises to offset the current cartel-busting actions of Saudi Arabia. So in a worst case state of affairs where provide stays unchanged at the same time as international energy demand continues to decline sharply because of the continuing global slowdown what is the worst case situation that would occur - except for the mass power HY defaults discussed previously - should the price of a barrel of oil continue to correlate the change in 2014 world GDP estimated? Here are some ideas from Deutsche Bank. OilPrice Mid-Week Intelligence Report: Halliburton and Saudi Arabia Playing Risky Games - As takeovers go, this one’s a doozy. While not in the higher stratosphere of corporate acquisitions at simply $35 billion, Halliburton’s buying of Baker Hughes is however one in all the bigger business stories of the year. Coming because it did as oil markets awaited news on OPEC slicing production and with the way forward for the Keystone XL pipeline still up within the air, it was a busy begin to the week at OilPrice. On Monday morning, Halliburton announced it had made a successful bid for Baker Hughes, price $35 billion in cash and stock. The merger of the second and third largest oil providers companies on this planet is aimed toward taking on the behemoth that is Schlumberger NV. The joint income of Halliburton and Baker Hughes for 2013 was close to $fifty two billion, outstripping Schlumberger NV’s $45.Three billion. If the deal goes through, this can be a shot in the arm for an oil services sector that has been within the doldrums as a consequence of oil costs dropping by a third worldwide since June. Halliburton CEO Dave Lesar gave an apparent breakdown of the deal to Reuters, saying it will permit the brand new entity "to be extra resilient, and in a position to supply a wider suite of products globally." But that's a pretty massive if. Markets seemed to initially react warmly to the deal, with Halliburton’s shares rising by 2 % after the Wall Street Journal initially broke the information. However, as details of the deal turned clear, investors seemed to get spooked at what they perceived to be significant anti-belief problems. After talks between the two giants had been disclosed on Friday, a word by FBR Capital Markets acknowledged that the proposed merger would be dominant in North America, which might spur protracted (antitrust) scrutiny; and likely elicit howls of protest from prospects everywhere, doubtlessly requiring concessions to more than one national anti-trust authority." US "Secret" Deal With Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First - Who may have seen this coming? With oil costs holding at 4-yr lows, closely pressuring round half of US shale manufacturing economics, the "secret" US deal (see here and right here) with Saudi Arabia to crush Russia via oil over-supply in a slumping demand world appears to be backfiring rapidly for John Kerry and his strategery group. Able to withstanding considerably lower costs for longer, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi proclaimed"no one ought to cut manufacturing and the market will stabilize itself," adding reasonably ominously (for the US financial system and HY default charges), "Why should Saudi Arabia lower?<br><br><br><br> Since a lot of demand progress comes from China, as Europeans and Americans drive much less miles per capita, a significant slowing of that progress demand could be a major think about where oil costs go in 2015. Gundlach: ‘Vicious cycle’ possible in oil, $70 is line in sand - CNBC - Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach mentioned Monday he expects the Federal Reserve to boost charges in 2015, however not on the power of financial fundamentals. He predicted that $70 is the "line within the sand" for West Texas Intermediate: Any drop under that level will lead to a major fall in value, he mentioned. 4x5 pickup, 4.0L V6, auto., black sand pearl, alum. Brent Plunge To $60 If OPEC Fails To cut, Junk Bond Rout, Default Cycle, "Profit Recession" To Follow -- While OPEC has been principally irrelevant in the past 5 years as a result of Saudi Arabia's recurring cartel-busting strikes, which have seen the oil exporter frequently align with the US as an alternative of with its OPEC "friends", and thanks to central banks flooding the market with liquidity serving to crude prices stay high regardless of where precise world spot or future demand was, this Thanksgiving traders will probably be periodically resurfacing from a Tryptophan coma and refreshing their favorite headline news service for updates from Vienna, the place a failure by OPEC to implement a significant output reduce could send oil costs may plunging to $60 a barrel in keeping with Reuters citing "market gamers" say.<br><br><br><br> FOREX trading stations are a place where buyers or traders can deal in foreign currencies. 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