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Wolfers checked out point unfold favorites of 12 or extra factors and concluded those groups are inclined to cover the purpose unfold at a lower rate than they need to. Should you add -9 to 180 you get a predicted whole of 171 factors in the game. Those video games with a complete between 125 and 129.5 have seen 36 overs and 16 unders, making them probably the greatest over bets throughout the previous three years We are going to proceed to replace this list over time. Favorites of 2.5 factors or less are simply 19-28 against the spread, whereas favorites of 3 to 5.5 factors are 18-26 against the number. Wolfers correctly states that it is far easier to fix a game with the favourite in a game with a giant level spread than it is to get the underdog to repair a contest. During his 16-year sample period, Wolfers found that each one favorites lined the spread 50.01-percent of the time, whereas favorites of 12-factors, or more, coated the point spread 48.37-p.c of the time.
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